A New Kind of Finance

Finance has benefited from the Wolfram's NKS approach but it can and will benefit even more in the future, and the gains from the influence may actually be concentrated among practitioners who unintentionally employ those principles as a group.Comment: 13 pages; Forthcoming in "Irreducibility and Computational Equivalence: 10 Years After Wolfram's A New Kind of Science," Hector Zenil, ed., Springer Verlag, 201

Implied cost of capital investment strategies - evidence from international stock markets

Investors can generate excess returns by implementing trading strategies based on publicly available equity analyst forecasts. This paper captures the information provided by analysts by the implied cost of capital (ICC), the internal rate of return that equates a firm's share price to the present value of analysts' earnings forecasts. We find that U.S. stocks with a high ICC outperform low ICC stocks on average by 6.0% per year. This spread is significant when controlling the investment returns for their risk exposure as proxied by standard pricing models. Further analysis across the world's largest equity markets validates these results

Momentum meets value investing in a small European market

In this paper, we investigate two prominent market anomalies documented in the finance literature – the momentum effect and value-growth effect. We conduct an out- of-sample test to the link between these two anomalies recurring to a sample of Portuguese stocks during the period 1988–2015. We find that the momentum of value and growth stocks is significantly different: growth stocks exhibit a much larger momentum than value stocks. A combined value and momentum strategy can generate statistically significant excess annual returns of 10.8%. These findings persist across several holding periods up to a year. Moreover, we show that macroeconomic variables fail to explain value and momentum of individual and combined returns. Collectively, our results contradict market efficiency at the weak form and pose a challenge to existing asset pricing theories.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Random walks - a sequential approach

In this paper sequential monitoring schemes to detect nonparametric drifts are studied for the random walk case. The procedure is based on a kernel smoother. As a by-product we obtain the asymptotics of the Nadaraya-Watson estimator and its as- sociated sequential partial sum process under non-standard sampling. The asymptotic behavior differs substantially from the stationary situation, if there is a unit root (random walk component). To obtain meaningful asymptotic results we consider local nonpara- metric alternatives for the drift component. It turns out that the rate of convergence at which the drift vanishes determines whether the asymptotic properties of the monitoring procedure are determined by a deterministic or random function. Further, we provide a theoretical result about the optimal kernel for a given alternative

Evaluating Greek equity funds using data envelopment analysis

This study assesses the relative performance of Greek equity funds employing a non-parametric method, specifically Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Using an original sample of cost and operational attributes we explore the e¤ect of each variable on funds' operational efficiency for an oligopolistic and bank-dominated fund industry. Our results have significant implications for the investors' fund selection process since we are able to identify potential sources of inefficiencies for the funds. The most striking result is that the percentage of assets under management affects performance negatively, a conclusion which may be related to the structure of the domestic stock market. Furthermore, we provide evidence against the notion of funds' mean-variance efficiency

The impact of news on measures of undiversifiable risk: evidence from the UK stock market

Using UK equity index data, this paper considers the impact of news on time varying measures of beta, the usual measure of undiversifiable risk. The empirical model implies that beta depends on news about the market and news about the sector. The asymmetric response of beta to news about the market is consistent across all sectors considered. Recent research is divided as to whether abnormalities in equity returns arise from changes in expected returns in an efficient market or over-reactions to new information. The evidence suggests that such abnormalities may be due to changes in expected returns caused by time-variation and asymmetry in beta

A study of data-driven momentum and disposition effects in the Chinese stock market by functional data analysis

We apply a functional data analysis approach to decompose the cross-sectional Fama–French three-factor model residuals in the Chinese stock market. Our results indicate that other than Fama–French three factors, there are two orthonormal asset pricing factors describing the behavioral biases in their historical performances: between winner and loser stocks, and extreme and mediocre-performing stocks, respectively. We explain these two factors through investors’ overreaction, overconfidence and the lead-lag effect. These findings empirically show the existence of momentum and disposition effects in the Chinese stock market. A buy-and-hold mean-variance optimized portfolio incorporating these two market anomalies boosts the Sharpe ratio to 1.27